US and Iranian negotiators meeting in New York are exploring a phased path out of war that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade of Iran, according to sources close to the talks. The discussions come after nearly seven months of conflict between the two countries, with the strait emerging as the central bargaining chip in efforts to end the standoff.

Hormuz Remains Key Sticking Point

Iran is seeking relief from the US blockade that has been choking its economy, while Washington is pushing for free passage for ships along the vital global oil route currently blocked by Tehran.

A senior Iranian official reportedly described the staged approach as the most realistic route out of the current confrontation. However, analysts note Iran is not primarily focused on collecting tolls in Hormuz but on preserving its administrative control of the waterway, suggesting Tehran may show flexibility on trade issues while holding firm on the strait itself.

Deal Chances Tied to US Midterms

Former US negotiator Dennis Ross said he sees only a 30% chance of an agreement being reached before the vote, though both sides may have stronger reasons to make a deal before rather than after the midterms. He added that the blockade is what is really squeezing the Iranians, calling it a strangling pressure. A Western official familiar with the talks said the entire focus remains on opening the Strait of Hormuz, noting that both sides face domestic pressure.