PMD forecasts monsoon spell from July 1, but why will Sindh miss rain?

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said the first monsoon spell will begin on July 1. Punjab, Kashmir, northern areas and northeastern Punjab are expected to receive rainfall as the system enters the country. The weather system is expected to reach northeastern parts of Pakistan first.

PMD spokesperson Anjum Nazir said there is little chance of the monsoon reaching Sindh in the coming days. He said no rainfall is expected in the province before July 5.

Nazir explained that a low-pressure system forming over the Bay of Bengal could later affect Sindh’s weather. This system may increase the chances of rain in Karachi and other parts of the province.

Despite this possibility, the department expects many areas of Sindh, including Karachi, to receive below-normal rainfall during this year’s monsoon season. This means rainfall may remain lower than usual even after the season begins.

The weather department also expects temperatures across Pakistan to stay above normal during the coming weeks. Southern regions, including eastern Balochistan, western Sindh and central Punjab, are likely to experience the highest temperatures.

Also read: PMD forecasts drizzle in Karachi, intense heat to grip Lahore

According to PMD data, Sindh received only 0.3 millimetres of rainfall in May. This was 91.3% below the province’s normal average of 3.1 millimetres, while the average temperature reached 35.2°C, which was 1.0°C above normal.

For June, PMD expects rainfall across Pakistan to remain near normal or slightly below normal. Rainfall may still vary from one area to another, especially in southern parts of the country.

The department warned that above-normal temperatures could increase the risk of heat spikes and long heatwave periods. Sindh, Punjab and Balochistan are expected to be the most affected regions.

PMD also cautioned that isolated heavy rain could still cause urban flooding in major cities. Poorly drained and low-lying areas remain at risk, even if overall monsoon rainfall stays below normal.

The forecast suggests that Pakistan will see an uneven start to the monsoon season. While northern regions may receive early rain, Sindh could continue facing hot weather before meaningful rainfall arrives.