PMD Glof alert: Northern areas face flood danger as GB remains cut off?
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued a glacial lake outburst flood (Glof) alert for Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa for the first week of August. The warning comes as heavy rains, rising temperatures and melting glaciers continue to increase flood risks in northern Pakistan.
At the same time, many people travelling through Gilgit-Baltistan remain stranded because roads to several areas are still blocked. Flash floods and Glof incidents have badly damaged highways, making travel and rescue efforts more difficult.
The PMD said the latest warning follows an earlier alert issued on July 17. It explained that warm weather and intermittent rainfall are expected to continue until the first week of August.
“This significant warming with intermittent rain will substantially accelerate snow and ice melt in the glaciated valleys of these regions,” the department said. Faster melting is expected to increase the amount of water flowing into rivers and streams.
The Met Office warned that water levels in mountain rivers could remain dangerously high. Existing glacial lakes may expand quickly, while new lakes could also form because of excessive melting.
“The possible impacts include: vulnerable downstream locations and low-lying areas adjacent to stream/riverbeds may face a high risk of sudden high flows.” The department also warned that flash floods could hit narrow valleys and other vulnerable locations.
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“The rapid expansion of glacial lakes can destabilise their natural ice and/or moraine damming, potentially triggering Glof incidents,” the PMD added. Such incidents can suddenly release huge amounts of water, rocks and mud into nearby communities.
A Glof is the sudden release of water and debris from a glacial lake, which can cause serious damage to homes, roads and farmland. According to the climate change ministry, more than 7.1 million people in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are vulnerable to this threat.
Pakistan has more than 13,032 glaciers, making it home to the largest glacier reserve outside the polar regions. However, experts say around 10,000 glaciers in Chitral and Gilgit-Baltistan are shrinking because of rising temperatures linked to climate change.
The PMD also warned that melting frozen ground, known as permafrost, could trigger heavy mudslides and debris flows. It added that landslides are becoming more likely in steep mountainous areas.
People living in snow-covered and glacier regions have been advised to stay away from riverbanks, streams and local nullahs. They should also keep a close watch on changing water levels and avoid risky areas.
The department further advised people not to camp, trek or stay near rivers, glacial lakes or narrow mountain valleys. It also urged residents to avoid unstable slopes where melting snow could trigger landslides.
The PMD asked communities to remain in close contact with Disaster Risk Community Based Management Committees (CBDRMCs) for local guidance and emergency support. It also said, “The disaster management authorities and relevant line departments should ensure alertness 24/7 and take necessary measures to avoid any untoward situation.”
Meanwhile, authorities in Gilgit-Baltistan are installing an iron bridge on the Baltistan Highway to restore traffic as quickly as possible. However, continuing flash floods and Glof incidents are slowing repair work and creating fresh challenges.
The latest PMD warning shows that climate change is making weather conditions in northern Pakistan more dangerous every year. Better preparedness, stronger infrastructure and quick emergency action will be important to protect lives and restore transport links.
