The crop, already impacted by an early March heatwave, has recently faced further stress due to unseasonal rainfall and strong winds across various parts of the province. These conditions have led to lodging, where wheat plants are flattened, raising concerns over both reduced yield and compromised grain quality.

Initial assessments indicate that wheat production in Punjab could drop by around 7 to 8 percent, while some internal estimates suggest losses might climb as high as 9 to 10 percent. The situation has created uncertainty about achieving national production targets for the current season.

Despite the challenges, Punjab Agriculture Secretary Iftikhar Ali Sahoo has expressed optimism, stating that the province may still manage a strong overall crop. However, no revised official figures have been released following the earlier projection of 22.5 million tons.

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Farmer representatives, including Khalid Khokhar, have voiced greater concern, noting that erratic weather has significantly affected wheat fields as well as maize crops and mango orchards.

Revised estimates suggest total wheat output could fall closer to 21-21.5 million tons. Meanwhile, the government has set a procurement target of 3 million tons, with operations scheduled to begin on April 15. Punjab Agriculture Minister Syed Ashiq Hussain Kirmani confirmed that district-level harvesting cost assessments have been finalized ahead of procurement.