Global oil prices have remained far more stable than expected despite five months of intense fighting between the United States and Iran, surprising energy experts who had predicted a major price shock.

When the conflict began in February, analysts warned that any disruption to the strategic Strait of Hormuz could push crude oil prices to between $150 and $200 per barrel. Instead, Brent crude briefly climbed to around $126 per barrel before easing back, averaging nearly $101 per barrel during the conflict.

One of the biggest reasons behind the stable market has been China's falling oil demand. By June, China's crude oil imports had dropped to their lowest level in a decade. Restrictions on fuel exports, the rapid growth of electric vehicles and slower activity in the petrochemical industry significantly reduced global demand for crude oil.

On the supply side, the United States, the world's largest oil producer, increased production to a record 13.93 million barrels per day by April. At the same time, Washington worked with the International Energy Agency to release oil from strategic petroleum reserves, preventing fears of a global supply shortage.

Market confidence also improved after US President Donald Trump repeatedly spoke about possible peace talks and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. These developments discouraged investors from making aggressive speculative bets that could have pushed prices even higher.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia expanded oil exports through its Red Sea port of Yanbu as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. The temporary restoration of shipping through the waterway in June further eased concerns, helping keep global oil markets relatively calm despite the prolonged conflict.