By November 2025, BYD had sold about 2.07 million electric vehicles worldwide. In comparison, Tesla sold around 1.22 million EVs by the end of September. Analysts say this gap is too large for Tesla to close by year-end.
The experts' estimate suggests Tesla may sell about 449,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter. This would bring its total sales to nearly 1.65 million in 2025, a drop of almost 8 percent from last year. However, BYD has not yet released its final yearly figures, but available data already show a clear trend.
Deutsche Bank is even more cautious. It expects only 405,000 deliveries in the final quarter, with sharp declines in North America and Europe and a smaller fall in China. One major reason for Tesla’s slowdown was the end of the $7,500 US EV tax credit in late September 2025. Sales jumped briefly before falling as buyers faced higher prices.
Analysts say the US market is now in a transition phase. Consumers are adjusting to new costs, while competition from European carmakers is also eating into Tesla’s share. In some regions, Tesla also lost customers due to Elon Musk’s public support for Donald Trump and other right-wing figures, which influenced buyer sentiment.
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BYD’s rise was not smooth either. Fierce price wars in China pushed the company to rethink its strategy. It expanded aggressively overseas, increased exports, and built production capacity abroad. Trade barriers were another hurdle. The US imposed 100 percent tariffs on Chinese EVs, while Europe added extra duties. BYD responded by investing in local manufacturing, including new plants in Hungary.
Despite losing its sales crown, Tesla may still recover. Experts say its focus on autonomous driving could fuel growth from 2026. Tesla plans to launch advanced “full self-driving” features and begin production of its Cybercab robotaxi in April 2026. It also plans cheaper versions of the Model 3 and Model Y.
For now, BYD holds the edge. Its fast decisions and global push have placed it firmly at the top of the EV market.
