Pakistan is likely to achieve the majority of its key performance targets under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program ahead of the upcoming review, although tax collection remains below expectations, according to a report by Topline Securities.

The report highlighted that nearly all Quantitative Performance Criteria for September and December 2025 are projected to be met, lowering the risk of major compliance issues during the IMF review. Key indicators, including net international reserves, net domestic assets of the State Bank of Pakistan, foreign currency swaps, and the primary budget surplus, are all expected to remain within the agreed limits.

Despite these positive trends, tax revenue collection continues to underperform. The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has missed its target by Rs 336 billion, reflecting ongoing challenges in revenue mobilization. The report suggests that some of this shortfall may be offset through super tax collections, though overall revenue is still likely to fall short of annual goals.

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An IMF mission is scheduled to visit Pakistan in the last week of February 2026 to conduct the third review under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the second review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The outcome will determine the pace and size of future disbursements to the country.

Analysts say that while macroeconomic stability is improving and program targets are broadly on track, bridging the revenue gap remains a key task for policymakers ahead of the IMF assessment.