WTO lifts 2026 trade forecast on AI boom

GENEVA – The World Trade Organization (WTO) on Thursday sharply raised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 3.9 percent, up from 1.9 percent projected in March. It expects 4.1 percent growth in 2027, just under the 4.2 percent recorded in 2025.

AI drives the upgrade

Demand for AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors and servers accounted for 47 percent of global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026, and trade in these products rose 67 percent year on year. The WTO said supply chains also adapted to energy and fertiliser disruptions linked to the US-Israeli war against Iran, which began in February. It cautioned that growth in such goods could moderate as markets saturate. The report also noted one of the widest gaps in recent years between trade volume growth of 3.5 percent in the first half and dollar value growth of 15 percent, reflecting higher energy prices.

Regional picture

Asia is set to lead, with imports rising 9.5 percent and exports 9.9 percent. Africa's imports are forecast up 8.9 percent and exports 5.6 percent. North America's imports are expected to grow just 1.4 percent, while its exports rise 5.7 percent.

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Services under pressure

The WTO cut its 2026 services trade forecast to 3.3 percent from 4.8 percent, citing higher aviation fuel costs and travel disruption linked to the Middle East conflict. Services growth is projected to rebound to 6.4 percent in 2027. Dawn noted that Pakistan's sea freight transport services exports rose 73 percent year on year in the first half of 2026.