Punjab is bracing for a prolonged and intense heatwave as the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) forecasts significantly above-normal temperatures from late April through June 2026.
Intense Heatwave to Grip Punjab
According to the PMD’s seasonal outlook, temperatures across Punjab are expected to remain consistently above normal, with some regions—especially South Punjab—likely to experience severe heatwave conditions.
April temperatures are projected to stay 1 to 2°C above average, rising further by 2 to 3°C in May, while some areas could witness spikes of 4 to 6°C above normal levels. By June, temperatures may soar to 45–46°C, intensifying heat stress across the province.
Major urban centers like Lahore are expected to feel even higher heat intensity due to urban heat effects, with temperatures in May ranging between 42°C and 45°C.
The PMD defines a heatwave as temperatures reaching or exceeding 42°C, particularly when such conditions persist for several consecutive days, increasing health risks.
Rising Risk from Late April
Officials indicate that temperatures could reach around 38°C by the end of April, with a strong likelihood of heatwave conditions developing in May and June. In peak summer months, temperatures may even exceed 44°C, posing serious challenges for daily life and public health.
Authorities have urged citizens to take precautionary measures, including:
- Avoiding outdoor activities during peak hours
- Staying hydrated
- Wearing light clothing
- Covering the head when outside
Also Read: Storm alert issued as rain winds expected across Pakistan
Government Measures and Preparedness
To mitigate the impact, the Environmental Protection Department has recommended:
- Expanding tree plantation initiatives
- Strengthening heatwave early warning systems
- Ensuring hospitals are equipped for heat-related emergencies
- Maintaining uninterrupted water supply
El Niño Threat Could Worsen Situation
Adding to concerns, the PMD has warned that a developing El Niño could further aggravate weather conditions by weakening the monsoon across South Asia.
According to PMD spokesperson Anjum Nazir Zaigham, the warming phase in the Pacific Ocean may evolve into El Niño during summer and potentially intensify into a “super El Niño” by August or September 2026.
This outlook aligns with projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which estimates a 50–60% probability of El Niño formation between July and September.
Impact on Monsoon and Agriculture
Experts warn that El Niño conditions typically suppress monsoon rainfall, raising serious concerns for:
- Agriculture and crop yields
- Water availability
- Increased heatwave intensity
Historically, strong El Niño events have disrupted rainfall patterns across South Asia and triggered extreme global weather shifts, including droughts in some regions and heavy rains in others.
Climate scientist Tido Semmler notes that the global effects of El Niño can take months to fully develop, potentially extending impacts into 2027.
Pakistan Weather Outlook
The broader weather outlook indicates hot and dry conditions across much of Pakistan. In Karachi, temperatures are expected to range between 36°C and 37°C, with humidity levels starting high in the morning and decreasing by evening.
Night temperatures in Karachi are likely to remain between 24°C and 26°C, maintaining warm conditions even after sunset.
