Pakistan’s unemployment rate is expected to rise to 7% in 2024–25, up from 6.3% reported in the 2020–21 Labour Force Survey, according to official sources familiar with early findings. The preliminary results, quietly shared during a recent DataFest event, indicate a noticeable increase in joblessness nationwide.

Officials said the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) presented initial data from the new Labour Force Survey, but experts raised questions over certain figures, particularly those related to Islamabad and the broader ICT region. A query sent to the PBS chief statistician remained unanswered. The government is expected to release the complete report next week.

The previous survey, conducted in 2020–21, recorded a labour force of 71.76 million and an unemployment rate of 6.3%. It also showed a low employment-to-population ratio of 42.1%, with a particularly large gender gap. Young people between 15 and 24 faced an unemployment rate of 11.1%, while the services sector remained the country’s largest employer.

However, the latest survey uses updated international standards approved at the 19th International Conference of Labour Statisticians, replacing the decades-old methodology used since the 1980s. Under the old system, even an hour of unpaid work in a family business counted as employment. The new methodology separates paid work from household or subsistence activities.

Also Read: Zohran Mamdani confronts Trump on U.S. funding of Israel

As a result, many rural women, unpaid family workers, and small farmers may no longer be categorized as “employed” unless they earn wages. Those growing food for their families, tending livestock for household use, or doing volunteer work will now be classified differently.

Due to this shift in definitions, labour force participation is expected to decline, employment rates may drop, and unemployment in Pakistan will likely appear higher in the new statistics.