This hike, paired with a shrinking market, is expected to make smartphones significantly more expensive for local consumers.

Industry analysts warn that 2026 could become one of the most challenging years for affordable smartphones, both globally and in Pakistan. The primary driver behind the anticipated price hike is the sharp increase in RAM prices, a core smartphone component that directly affects production costs.

According to market data, RAM prices have already risen between 8 and 25 percent during 2025, and experts believe the upward trend will intensify next year. Some estimates suggest that memory chip prices alone could surge by as much as 40 percent within a single quarter, forcing manufacturers to pass on the additional costs to consumers.

Initially, global analysts had projected a recovery in smartphone sales in 2026. However, the outlook has shifted, with the global smartphone market now expected to contract by 2.1 percent. As demand weakens and component costs climb, manufacturers are likely to cut production, resulting in fewer devices entering markets worldwide, including Pakistan.

Smaller smartphone brands are expected to face the greatest pressure, while global giants such as Apple and Samsung may be better positioned to absorb some of the cost increases. Analysts warn that to keep prices in check, manufacturers may reduce features, offering phones with downgraded cameras, lower-quality displays, reduced audio performance, and less internal storage.

Also Read: Pakistan to cut mobile phone tax for overseas Pakistanis bringing phones

Impact on Pakistani Market and Consumers

For Pakistan, the expected price hike could hit consumers particularly hard. Since most smartphones sold in Pakistan rely on imported components and fully assembled units, rising global RAM prices, currency volatility, and import costs will likely push retail prices even higher. Budget and mid-range smartphones — the most popular segments in Pakistan — are expected to see noticeable price increases, limiting choices for cost-conscious buyers.

Industry insiders warn that the price surge may slow smartphone upgrades, reduce sales volumes, and increase demand for used or refurbished phones in Pakistan. Local distributors may also face tighter margins, while consumers could delay purchases or opt for lower-spec devices due to affordability concerns.

Experts estimate that the average smartphone price could rise by around 7 percent in 2026, making new devices less accessible for millions of Pakistani consumers. With higher prices, fewer options, and possible feature compromises, buyers planning to upgrade next year may need to prepare for tougher decisions and increased spending.

Global Context

Globally, rising memory costs, shrinking demand, and supply chain pressures are reshaping the smartphone industry. As manufacturers reassess production strategies, markets like Pakistan, which heavily depend on imports, are likely to feel the impact more sharply than developed economies.