A fragile ceasefire between Iran, the United States, and Israel has raised hopes, but oil and gas prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels anytime soon.

Experts say the main reason is the disruption in supply routes, especially the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage connecting the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. Nearly 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas shipments pass through this route, making it one of the most important energy corridors globally.

During the conflict, Iran blocked the strait in response to US and Israeli attacks, sharply reducing the movement of cargo ships. Before the tensions, around 120 to 140 ships crossed daily, but now only a few vessels are managing to pass, severely affecting global supply.

This disruption has not only pushed up oil and gas prices but also increased the cost of related products such as helium and fertilizers. As a result, many developing countries in Asia and Africa are facing economic pressure.

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Analysts warn that restoring stable and continuous shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is key to stabilizing the market. However, uncertainty remains high, and it is difficult to predict when prices will normalize.

There are also concerns that Iran may impose additional fees on ships, along with rising insurance costs, which could keep prices elevated. Still, experts believe the real issue is supply restoration, not fees.

The International Monetary Fund has also warned that global economic growth could slow down even if the ceasefire holds. Meanwhile, liquefied natural gas supplies may take three to six months to fully recover.