Bangladesh will vote on February 12 in its first national election since a student-led uprising removed former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024. Analysts say the polls could reshape South Asia’s balance of power.

Ties between India and Bangladesh have cooled after New Delhi gave shelter to Sheikh Hasina despite extradition requests. This move angered Dhaka’s interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus.

Since then, Bangladesh has increased engagement with China and Pakistan. While China already enjoyed strong trade and defense links with Dhaka, India had long remained Bangladesh’s most important regional partner.

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Experts now say that balance is changing. Yunus chose China for his first state visit, sending a strong political signal. In January, the two countries signed a defense deal for a drone plant near a proposed northern airbase close to India.

Analysts believe this shift may continue regardless of who wins the election. Bangladesh’s growing role in China’s Bay of Bengal strategy is seen as increasingly central.

At the same time, relations with India remain tense. New Delhi has raised concerns over violence against minorities in Bangladesh, citing reports of about 70 deaths in 2025. Dhaka has accused India of exaggerating the issue.

There have been attempts to ease tensions. India’s foreign minister visited Dhaka earlier this year, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi sent condolences to the family of opposition leader Khaleda Zia.

However, relations suffered again after a Bangladeshi cricketer was dropped from the Indian Premier League following protests in India. This led Bangladesh to withdraw from the T20 World Cup in India.

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Bangladesh has also moved closer to Pakistan, resuming direct flights in January after more than a decade. Analysts say this is part of a broader push for diplomatic balance.

Despite political strain, experts note that trade between India and Bangladesh remains steady. Most agreements signed under Hasina are still in place.

Analysts stress that stronger China ties do not necessarily mean hostility with India. Both relationships, they say, can continue at the same time.