Met Office warns of regional extremes in 2026 monsoon rainfall outlook
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has released its seasonal Monsoon 2026 forecast, predicting below-normal rainfall in most parts of the country while warning that some northern regions may receive heavier-than-usual precipitation. According to the forecast, Kashmir, upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Gilgit-Baltistan are expected to receive above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season, increasing the risk of localised flooding and weather-related disruptions.
The PMD said temperatures across Pakistan are likely to remain above normal from July to September. Northern Punjab and western Gilgit-Baltistan are expected to experience more intense heat conditions than many other parts of the country. Weather experts have warned that the combination of strong monsoon spells and rising temperatures could increase the risk of urban flooding in several cities across Sindh, Punjab, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
The department also cautioned that below-normal rainfall in parts of Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan may worsen water shortages and place additional pressure on agriculture and water resources. Officials said elevated temperatures could increase heat stress nationwide, particularly in areas already experiencing prolonged periods of hot weather.
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Another major concern highlighted in the outlook is accelerated glacier melting in northern regions. The PMD warned that rising temperatures may increase the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which can trigger sudden flooding and cause damage in vulnerable mountainous areas.
Authorities have been advised to strengthen preparedness measures, improve disaster response planning, and enhance early warning systems to reduce the impact of weather-related emergencies during the monsoon season. The latest forecast suggests that Pakistan may experience a season of contrasting weather patterns, with some regions facing heavy rainfall and flood threats while others struggle with extreme heat and water shortages.
