Traders and analysts in Pakistan see little hope for stability in the gold market, which has swung sharply amid a rising price trend. They blame the volatility on a rare mix of global and domestic factors — from geopolitical tensions and US tariff pressures to rupee depreciation and shifting government policies.
Experts say gold prices in Pakistan now reflect not only international bullion rates but also the country’s unstable economic environment. The market, largely informal and self-regulated, lacks credible data on supply, demand, or pricing. Even the State Bank of Pakistan, the Finance Ministry, and the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics have no consolidated figures on the sector’s actual size.
The yellow metal’s value has surged exponentially since 2001, when 10 grams sold for around Rs5,000. Today, it exceeds Rs350,000, marking a massive 70-fold increase. Yet, analysts note that returns in other asset classes like real estate and stocks have also outperformed gold during the same period.
Last month, gold prices in Pakistan fluctuated wildly — opening October at Rs343,200, peaking at Rs402,100, and closing at Rs361,800 per 10 grams. Experts attribute these swings to the interplay of global and local dynamics such as US interest rate shifts, dollar volatility, import restrictions, and wedding-season demand surges.
An economist linked to the All Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA) said international bullion prices, ETF flows, and rupee-dollar parity all determine domestic gold rates. The government’s recent decision to ban and later lift gold imports also influenced market sentiment.
Also Read: Punjab government enforces new winter school timings with heavy fines
The World Gold Council (WGC) estimates Pakistan’s annual gold demand between 60 and 90 tonnes, with investment demand rising steadily. In 2024, jewellery accounted for roughly 24–39% of total demand, while investment in bars and coins reached nearly 26%.
Experts predict further instability as inflation, exchange rate risks, and geopolitical tensions persist. Despite the volatility, gold remains a trusted hedge against inflation and rupee depreciation — and a lasting symbol of security and prestige in Pakistani culture.
