The conflict in Yemen operates across interconnected layers that collectively explain why it has evolved into a regional game rather than a resolvable civil war. At the domestic level, the war reflects local grievances, fragmented authority, and competition over resources and political identity. This internal struggle, however, is subsumed by a regional proxy dimension in which Saudi Arabia and Iran view Yemen primarily through the lens of security and influence rather than governance or reconciliation. A third and more destabilizing layer exists within the anti-Houthi coalition itself, where Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates pursue divergent visions for Yemen’s future i.e. unity versus fragmentation, resulting in competing local proxies and recurrent friction on the ground. Across all three layers, key decisions regarding escalation, de-escalation, territorial control, and economic access are shaped by external strategic calculations rather than Yemeni political compromise. Consequently, local actors increasingly function as instruments of regional policy, and instability persists because it aligns with broader power-balancing and maritime security interests, reinforcing Yemen’s role as a managed arena of regional competition.
Recent Developments and Their Consequences
Recent escalations in the Red Sea, particularly renewed Houthi attacks on international shipping and subsequent Western military responses, have further internationalized the conflict. Yemen has increasingly been linked to broader regional crises, including Gaza and Iran-U.S. tensions, transforming it into a theater of global security concern. These developments risk entrenching Yemen’s role as a permanent maritime pressure point, increasing the likelihood of prolonged militarization, economic isolation, and delayed peace negotiations.
The American Dilemma: Securing Trade vs. Maintaining Unity
The United States’ role in Yemen has evolved into a struggle between tactical security and long-term stability. By 2026, the U.S. military presence in the Red Sea has become a permanent feature of global trade architecture. However, Washington’s "selective intervention", striking Houthi leaders while staying silent on the Saudi-UAE military clashes has created a power vacuum. The U.S. now faces a choice between continuing to back a failing unified government in Riyadh, or embrace the "break-to-build" strategy of the UAE by recognizing a sovereign South. This hesitation remains a primary reason why no single power can consolidate control over Yemen.
The Humanitarian Cost of Geopolitical Stalemate
As of January 2026, over 19 million people remain in need of aid. The "regional game" has paralyzed the economy and destroyed infrastructure. The central government exists largely in name only, having lost the ability to provide basic services to a population caught in the world's most persistent humanitarian disaster.
Conclusion: Who is Winning?
Determining a definitive "winner" in Yemen is complex because the conflict has shifted into a "new normal" where victory is measured by influence rather than total control. The Houthis have successfully consolidated land and power in the north, while Iran has secured a high-impact, low-cost ally on the Saudi border. Simultaneously, the UAE has achieved its maritime objectives by securing leverage over vital global shipping lanes, leaving Saudi Arabia with the mixed results of reduced domestic attacks but an unstable, divided neighbor. Ultimately, Yemen is the absolute loser, having dissolved into a collection of fiefdoms with no clear path to recovery. This fragmentation serves as a definitive case study in modern proxy warfare: Yemen is no longer being fought to be won, but rather to be managed as a laboratory for regional interests. It illustrates a grim reality of twenty-first-century geopolitics that modern wars persist not because solutions are absent, but because instability itself has become a strategic asset for external players.
This is the second and concluding part of a two-part analysis, focusing on Yemen’s transformation into a regional power contest, its interlocking wars, and their geopolitical and humanitarian consequences.
