The Yemeni conflict, frequently categorized as a "civil war," has fundamentally evolved from a domestic political crisis into a high-stakes geopolitical arena. While the roots of the struggle lie in internal fragmentation, the war today is defined by a "regional game" where external powers dictate institutional outcomes and territorial control. This article contends that Yemen is no longer a conventional civil war but a strategic battleground where regional powers shape outcomes to serve their own interests. It explores the country’s political fragmentation, the role of dominant factions, the competing agendas of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran, recent developments and their wider consequences, the restrained engagement of global actor, the U.S and the severe humanitarian toll, concluding with potential future trajectory of yemen as to who would win and who would be an absolute loser.
Geography of Yemen: From Peripheral State to Strategic Arena
Prior to 2015, Yemen’s rugged terrain was viewed primarily as an economic burden that hindered development. However, the conflict has "weaponized" geography, transforming domestic constraints into regional assets. Strategic nodes, most notably the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, through which approximately 10% of global maritime trade passes have replaced national borders as the primary focal points of contestation. External actors have abandoned the pursuit of nationwide control in favor of a "selective territorial strategy." By securing specific ports and energy corridors, these powers use Yemeni soil as a force multiplier for their own global trade and security agendas, effectively turning the nation into a segmented arena of foreign influence.
History of Yemen Post-Arab Spring: Origins of the Conflict
The crisis began with the 2011 Arab Spring, which ended Ali Abdullah Saleh’s 33-year rule but left a power vacuum that the transitional government under Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi could not fill. In 2014, the Houthis (Ansar Allah) seized Sana’a, triggering a Saudi-led military intervention in 2015 aimed at preventing an Iranian foothold. Over the last decade, the war morphed into a complex proxy battle. While Iran provided the Houthis with asymmetric capabilities to pressure Riyadh, the UAE began backing the Southern Transitional Council (STC). This internationalization has rendered the conflict intractable; local factions are now so tied to foreign strategic calculations that domestic peace has become subservient to regional competition.
The Four Dominant Factions in Yemen
Yemen’s fragmented landscape is currently dominated by four distinct power blocs, each sustained by differing ideological goals and external patrons. In the north, the Houthis (Ansar Allah), backed by Iran, control the capital, Sana’a, and the majority of the population, leveraging their position to project power into the Red Sea. The internationally recognized government, now represented by the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) and supported by Saudi Arabia, holds influence over much of eastern and central Yemen, including the oil-rich Marib, though its authority is frequently challenged by internal rifts. In the south, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), heavily supported by the UAE, maintains de facto control over Aden and critical coastline, prioritizing southern independence and maritime influence over national reunification. Meanwhile, a fourth power exists in the vast, ungoverned hinterlands, where tribal coalitions and extremist groups like Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) exploit the security vacuum to maintain local fiefdoms, further complicating any path toward a unified state.
Regional Players & Their Strategic Interests
The conflict in Yemen has evolved into a complex geopolitical "chess board" where regional powers pursue distinct, and often conflicting, strategic agendas. Saudi Arabia has shifted its focus from seeking an outright military victory to a strategy of containment and border security. For Riyadh, the primary objective is the neutralization of Houthi missile and drone threats that target Saudi infrastructure, alongside securing its long southern border against infiltration. In contrast, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has prioritized a maritime and trade-centric strategy, focusing on the control of southern ports and strategic waterways like the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. By providing robust support to the Southern Transitional Council (STC), Abu Dhabi aims to secure a permanent sphere of influence over Yemen’s coastlines, often placing it at odds with Saudi interests in a unified Yemeni state. Meanwhile, Iran continues to employ a low-cost, high-impact asymmetric strategy, leveraging its support for the Houthis to exert maximum pressure on Saudi Arabia. For Tehran, Yemen serves as an affordable front to distract its rivals and gain strategic depth on the Arabian Peninsula, ensuring that even a "weakened" Iran can maintain significant regional leverage.
